Final Predictions & Rankings Update

After over a year of waiting, the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow! What an incredible road it has been getting here. The time has come for me to make my final predictions, so here they are:

Iowa: Though Mike Huckabee has seen his support drop after his very high numbers in late November and early December, I predict a Huckabee win tomorrow in the Hawkeye state. This win while certainly beneficial to the Huckster, will have a much more momentous impact on Mitt Romney. Despite finishing a close second, Romney will lose what little edge he maintained over McCain in New Hampshire and he cannot possibly survive losses in both states. McCain will finish a surprisingly strong third in this Midwestern state which has not bought McCain's brand of conservativism in the past. Ron Paul will come in an incredible fourth place, due to his loyal and dedicated supporters who will attend their caucuses regardless of how nasty the weather is or how exciting the Orange Bowl is. After his fifth place finish, Thompson will drop out and endorse his former colleague, John McCain. Hunter will also drop out, though his endorsement is much harder to predict.

The Numbers:
Huckabee- 30%
Romney- 28%
McCain- 13%
Paul- 12%
Thompson- 10%
Giuliani- 6%
Hunter- 1%


New Hampshire: After his disappointing loss in Iowa, New Hampshire voters will again turn to their wonder boy, John McCain to save them from the horror of a Mike Huckabee candidacy (New Hampshire, with its fiscally conservative, socially moderate, and foreign policy moderate Republican Party, finds the Hucksters brand of... whatever he's calling it these days... to be extremely distasteful). After finishing third in Iowa and receiving the endorsement of Thompson, New Hampshire has an excuse to vote for John and his newfound viability. Romney will not easily survive his loss here.

The Numbers:
McCain- 34%
Romney- 27%
Paul- 15%
Giuliani- 14%
Huckabee- 9%


Michigan: Michigan will bring about another win for McCain following his win in New Hampshire. He has considerable support in the state and will only benefit from a New Hampshire win. Giuliani, once a strong contender in Michigan, will find it difficult to place well here after being bested by Ron Paul in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney, whose father was a former governor of Michigan and is somewhat of a favorite son, will come in second (yet again). In Michigan, a state with much more diversity than Iowa and New Hampshire, the competition will be much tighter.

The Numbers:
McCain- 27%
Romney- 24%
Giuliani- 20%
Huckabee- 19%
Paul- 10%


South Carolina: Mike Huckabee, with his strong Southern roots, is banking on a win on this familiar turf. However, John McCain also has considerable support in the state, and Romney and Giuliani have polled well here for months now. This race will also be extremely tight. Due to how much could change between now and January 19, the day South Carolina holds its primary, I will not include actual numbers as they are simply too hard to predict (I may regret making numerical guesses in New Hampshire and Michigan, too), however, I will predict a McCain win here with Huckabee in second, Romney in third, and Giuliani in fourth.


Florida: Ahhh, how things will have changed by the time Florida rolls around on the 29th... The state that was supposed to be Rudy Giuliani's firewall and launch him into a landslide victory of Super-Duper-Mega-Giga-Ultra Tuesday, will no longer be securely in the mayor's hands. While Huckabee and Romney each have considerable support in Florida, few votes lost by the Mayor will go to these two, rather those defecting from the sinking USS Rudolph will find suitable accommodation aboard McCain's ship. He will narrowly defeat Huckabee, and, thus, secure the nomination.


Mark my words, John McCain will be the Republican nominee. And for obvious reasons, a reshuffling of the rankings is in order. The new rankings will be as follows (with previous rankings in parentheses):

1. John McCain (3)
2. Mike Huckabee (1)
3. Mitt Romney (2)
4. Rudy Giuliani (4)
5. Ron Paul (5)
6. Fred Thompson (6)
7. Duncan Hunter (7)
8. Alan Keyes (8)

Rankings 2.1

Once again, I feel a little reshuffling of the rankings is in order after updating them on the 8th. As Huckabee's polling numbers have remained fairly high, he will remain in his position at #1. John McCain has passed up Rudy Giuliani due to the huge fall Rudy has experienced the last few weeks. Tancredo has also been removed per his self-removal from the race. Perhaps the most interesting change is Ron Paul's passing of Fred Thompson. Thompson's numbers haven't risen in months and Ron Paul continues his upward movement. Not to mention his single-day $6 million fundraising blitz this past week that set the all-time fundraising record for a single-day for a primary candidate, surpassing the mark previously made by John Kerry. Numbers in parentheses are the candidates' previous rankings.

1) Mike Huckabee (1)
2) Mitt Romney (2)
3) John McCain (4)
4) Rudy Giuliani (3)
5) Ron Paul (6)
6) Fred Thompson (5)
7) Duncan Hunter (7)
8) Alan Keyes (9)

Fluidity to an Extreme

By far the most appropriate one-word description of the GOP primary race is "fluid." During the Winter 2006 and Spring 2007, it seemed like Rudy Giuliani would run away with the nomination. Over Summer 2007, Romney seemed to have the primary in the bad with huge leads in almost every single early state. Fall 2007 saw the emergence of Huckabee as both the early-state and national front-runner. The story for Winter 2007? At this point, it would appear that John McCain has the greatest chance of becoming the flavor of the season. With a batch of polls released today, McCain's odds seem to be on the up-and-up.

Here are today's polls. Keep in mind, however, that ARG has a long-standing history of over-polling the Senator and the accuracy of these polls is certainly extremely disputable.

ARG GOP Iowa Caucus

* Mike Huckabee 28% (27%)
* John McCain 20% (9%)
* Mitt Romney 17% (28%)
* Rudy Giuliani 13% (9%)
* Fred Thompson 5% (14%)
* Ron Paul 4% (3%)
* Undecided 11% (9%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican caucus goers (526 Republicans and 74 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26-29 are in parentheses.

ARG GOP New Hampshire Primary

* John McCain 26% (11%)
* Mitt Romney 26% (36%)
* Rudy Giuliani 16% (22%)
* Mike Huckabee 11% (13%)
* Ron Paul 4% (2%)
* Fred Thompson 4% (3%)
* Undecided 10% (12%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (484 Republicans and 116 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26-29 are in parentheses.

Lastly, today's Rasmussen Daily National Tracking Poll is extremely intriguing. This is Giuliani's lowest posting in any national poll since national polling for the 2008 election began. John McCain has also risen from his long time at number four or five and into a second-place tie with Romney.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

* Mike Huckabee 21%
* John McCain 15%
* Mitt Romney 15%
* Rudy Giuliani 13%
* Fred Thompson 12%
* Ron Paul 6%

Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

The fact that Giuliani could go from national front-runner to scraping fourth place in a Rasmussen poll in a matter of days shows just how fluid this race is. There are only fourteen days left till the Iowa caucuses and Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Mike Huckabee all have a decent shot at winning the nomination. When this race is over, it will make one incredible book.

Texas Governor Rick Perry Endorses Giuliani

As most of you have probably heard by now, the governor of my fine state has endorsed Rudy Giuliani. Such an early endorsement followed up by such stringent support on the campaign trail hints at Perry wanting to be in the VEEP slot should Rudy win. The question is if Perry is really that great of a choice. He has strong ties to the current administration, something that is in no way positive in our nation's current political landscape. He does, however, provide a Giuliani ticket with a bona-fide Southern conservative, something Giuliani knows he needs.

Rasmussen Florida Poll

Here is what Rasmussen, in my opinion the most accurate polling firm when it comes to state-by-state primary polls (the only polls worth anything at this point in the race), has to say about the state of the race in Florida:

Rasmussen Florida GOP Primary Poll

Rudy Giuliani 29% (-1)
Fred Thompson 23% (+6)
John McCain 12% (+5)
Mitt Romney 11% (-4)
Mike Huckabee 3% (+1)


Rudy Giuliani's strategy is to hang on through Mitt Romney's projected wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wyoming, and possibly Michigan and Fred Thompson's projected win in South Carolina, and pull out a win in Florida, right before Super-Duper-Mega-Giga-Ultra Tuesday. His strategy is then to go into Feb 5 with the buzz and momentum from a win in Florida and then to wrap up the nomination with wins in delegate-rich states like California and New Jersey where he is currently leading. The problem with this plan is that by the time Florida comes around, people will likely be very disappointed with Giuliani's poor showing up to that point. If Thompson can pull out a win in South Carolina right before Florida, he could use that momentum to overtake Rudy in Florida, or Romney might even have such a tidal wave rolling by South Carolina that he wins there and goes on to win Florida. Whatever happens, if Rudy can't take at least one early-primary state from Romney or Thompson's columns, he will have a very tough time pulling out a victory in Florida. His best shots at doing that at this point seem to be New Hampshire or South Carolina. Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't. We'll just have to wait and see what the Hizzoner's got up his sleeves.