Final Predictions & Rankings Update

After over a year of waiting, the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow! What an incredible road it has been getting here. The time has come for me to make my final predictions, so here they are:

Iowa: Though Mike Huckabee has seen his support drop after his very high numbers in late November and early December, I predict a Huckabee win tomorrow in the Hawkeye state. This win while certainly beneficial to the Huckster, will have a much more momentous impact on Mitt Romney. Despite finishing a close second, Romney will lose what little edge he maintained over McCain in New Hampshire and he cannot possibly survive losses in both states. McCain will finish a surprisingly strong third in this Midwestern state which has not bought McCain's brand of conservativism in the past. Ron Paul will come in an incredible fourth place, due to his loyal and dedicated supporters who will attend their caucuses regardless of how nasty the weather is or how exciting the Orange Bowl is. After his fifth place finish, Thompson will drop out and endorse his former colleague, John McCain. Hunter will also drop out, though his endorsement is much harder to predict.

The Numbers:
Huckabee- 30%
Romney- 28%
McCain- 13%
Paul- 12%
Thompson- 10%
Giuliani- 6%
Hunter- 1%


New Hampshire: After his disappointing loss in Iowa, New Hampshire voters will again turn to their wonder boy, John McCain to save them from the horror of a Mike Huckabee candidacy (New Hampshire, with its fiscally conservative, socially moderate, and foreign policy moderate Republican Party, finds the Hucksters brand of... whatever he's calling it these days... to be extremely distasteful). After finishing third in Iowa and receiving the endorsement of Thompson, New Hampshire has an excuse to vote for John and his newfound viability. Romney will not easily survive his loss here.

The Numbers:
McCain- 34%
Romney- 27%
Paul- 15%
Giuliani- 14%
Huckabee- 9%


Michigan: Michigan will bring about another win for McCain following his win in New Hampshire. He has considerable support in the state and will only benefit from a New Hampshire win. Giuliani, once a strong contender in Michigan, will find it difficult to place well here after being bested by Ron Paul in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney, whose father was a former governor of Michigan and is somewhat of a favorite son, will come in second (yet again). In Michigan, a state with much more diversity than Iowa and New Hampshire, the competition will be much tighter.

The Numbers:
McCain- 27%
Romney- 24%
Giuliani- 20%
Huckabee- 19%
Paul- 10%


South Carolina: Mike Huckabee, with his strong Southern roots, is banking on a win on this familiar turf. However, John McCain also has considerable support in the state, and Romney and Giuliani have polled well here for months now. This race will also be extremely tight. Due to how much could change between now and January 19, the day South Carolina holds its primary, I will not include actual numbers as they are simply too hard to predict (I may regret making numerical guesses in New Hampshire and Michigan, too), however, I will predict a McCain win here with Huckabee in second, Romney in third, and Giuliani in fourth.


Florida: Ahhh, how things will have changed by the time Florida rolls around on the 29th... The state that was supposed to be Rudy Giuliani's firewall and launch him into a landslide victory of Super-Duper-Mega-Giga-Ultra Tuesday, will no longer be securely in the mayor's hands. While Huckabee and Romney each have considerable support in Florida, few votes lost by the Mayor will go to these two, rather those defecting from the sinking USS Rudolph will find suitable accommodation aboard McCain's ship. He will narrowly defeat Huckabee, and, thus, secure the nomination.


Mark my words, John McCain will be the Republican nominee. And for obvious reasons, a reshuffling of the rankings is in order. The new rankings will be as follows (with previous rankings in parentheses):

1. John McCain (3)
2. Mike Huckabee (1)
3. Mitt Romney (2)
4. Rudy Giuliani (4)
5. Ron Paul (5)
6. Fred Thompson (6)
7. Duncan Hunter (7)
8. Alan Keyes (8)

Rankings 2.1

Once again, I feel a little reshuffling of the rankings is in order after updating them on the 8th. As Huckabee's polling numbers have remained fairly high, he will remain in his position at #1. John McCain has passed up Rudy Giuliani due to the huge fall Rudy has experienced the last few weeks. Tancredo has also been removed per his self-removal from the race. Perhaps the most interesting change is Ron Paul's passing of Fred Thompson. Thompson's numbers haven't risen in months and Ron Paul continues his upward movement. Not to mention his single-day $6 million fundraising blitz this past week that set the all-time fundraising record for a single-day for a primary candidate, surpassing the mark previously made by John Kerry. Numbers in parentheses are the candidates' previous rankings.

1) Mike Huckabee (1)
2) Mitt Romney (2)
3) John McCain (4)
4) Rudy Giuliani (3)
5) Ron Paul (6)
6) Fred Thompson (5)
7) Duncan Hunter (7)
8) Alan Keyes (9)

Rankings 2.0

For the first time since beginning this blog, I feel it is necessary to update the candidate rankings. Here are the new rankings with previous rankings in parentheses:

1) Mike Huckabee (5)
2) Mitt Romney (1)
3) Rudy Giuliani (2)
4) John McCain (4)
5) Fred Thompson (3)
6) Ron Paul (6)
7) Duncan Hunter (7)
8) Tom Tancredo (8)
9) Alan Keyes (9)

The most glaring change is the upward movement of Huckabee from 5th to 1st. I cannot express the sadness this brings me. The GOP will put the final nail in their coffin if they nominate Huckabee as thousands of fiscal conservatives and social moderates will flock to other parties. How can we vote for a man who has advocated for quarantine of AIDS patients and begged for higher taxes while governor of Arkansas? Doubt the claims that Huck is a fiscal liberal? Watch this...



Well anyway, the other major movement is Fred Thompson's fall from third to fifth. Other than that, the only other movements were Romney's fall from first to second and Giuliani's slide from second to third.