Final New Hampshire Predictions

Well Iowa and Wyoming have come and gone with Huckabee and Romney each receiving a win. Now it's the "crusty," libertarian-leaning New Hampshire voters' turn to cast their ballots. While the fallout from Iowa was much less severe on the Republican side than I had predicted (i.e. Thompson and Hunter staying in, Romney not being too damaged), I will largely stand by my previous NH predictions. I still predict McCain to prevail tomorrow, but Romney cannot be underestimated. His ground game and GOTV efforts are second to none and he will benefit from these much more in New Hampshire's day-long primary than he did during the 30-minute Iowa caucuses.

Obama's huge win in Iowa will not help McCain's chances as many Independents (who can vote in either party's primary in NH) will vote for Obama to keep him alive and propel him towards the nomination. This is problem because McCain's most loyal voting bloc is composed primarily of Independents who might think Obama is more deserving of their vote.

These factors are sure to make tomorrow's election a nail-biter, but I am brave enough to make numerical guestimations:

The Numbers:

GOP

John McCain 33%
Mitt Romney 30%
Rudy Giuliani 12%
Ron Paul 11%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Thompson 4%

DEM

Barack Obama 40%
Hillary Clinton 31%
John Edwards 22%
Bill Richardson 7%

As I believe John McCain and Barack Obama will be the nominees come November, perhaps Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) was correct when-- in 1988 while serving as governor of New Hampshire-- he said, "Iowa picks corn; New Hampshire picks presidents."