Fluidity to an Extreme

By far the most appropriate one-word description of the GOP primary race is "fluid." During the Winter 2006 and Spring 2007, it seemed like Rudy Giuliani would run away with the nomination. Over Summer 2007, Romney seemed to have the primary in the bad with huge leads in almost every single early state. Fall 2007 saw the emergence of Huckabee as both the early-state and national front-runner. The story for Winter 2007? At this point, it would appear that John McCain has the greatest chance of becoming the flavor of the season. With a batch of polls released today, McCain's odds seem to be on the up-and-up.

Here are today's polls. Keep in mind, however, that ARG has a long-standing history of over-polling the Senator and the accuracy of these polls is certainly extremely disputable.

ARG GOP Iowa Caucus

* Mike Huckabee 28% (27%)
* John McCain 20% (9%)
* Mitt Romney 17% (28%)
* Rudy Giuliani 13% (9%)
* Fred Thompson 5% (14%)
* Ron Paul 4% (3%)
* Undecided 11% (9%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican caucus goers (526 Republicans and 74 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26-29 are in parentheses.

ARG GOP New Hampshire Primary

* John McCain 26% (11%)
* Mitt Romney 26% (36%)
* Rudy Giuliani 16% (22%)
* Mike Huckabee 11% (13%)
* Ron Paul 4% (2%)
* Fred Thompson 4% (3%)
* Undecided 10% (12%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (484 Republicans and 116 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26-29 are in parentheses.

Lastly, today's Rasmussen Daily National Tracking Poll is extremely intriguing. This is Giuliani's lowest posting in any national poll since national polling for the 2008 election began. John McCain has also risen from his long time at number four or five and into a second-place tie with Romney.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

* Mike Huckabee 21%
* John McCain 15%
* Mitt Romney 15%
* Rudy Giuliani 13%
* Fred Thompson 12%
* Ron Paul 6%

Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

The fact that Giuliani could go from national front-runner to scraping fourth place in a Rasmussen poll in a matter of days shows just how fluid this race is. There are only fourteen days left till the Iowa caucuses and Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Mike Huckabee all have a decent shot at winning the nomination. When this race is over, it will make one incredible book.