Rasmussen Florida Poll

Here is what Rasmussen, in my opinion the most accurate polling firm when it comes to state-by-state primary polls (the only polls worth anything at this point in the race), has to say about the state of the race in Florida:

Rasmussen Florida GOP Primary Poll

Rudy Giuliani 29% (-1)
Fred Thompson 23% (+6)
John McCain 12% (+5)
Mitt Romney 11% (-4)
Mike Huckabee 3% (+1)


Rudy Giuliani's strategy is to hang on through Mitt Romney's projected wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wyoming, and possibly Michigan and Fred Thompson's projected win in South Carolina, and pull out a win in Florida, right before Super-Duper-Mega-Giga-Ultra Tuesday. His strategy is then to go into Feb 5 with the buzz and momentum from a win in Florida and then to wrap up the nomination with wins in delegate-rich states like California and New Jersey where he is currently leading. The problem with this plan is that by the time Florida comes around, people will likely be very disappointed with Giuliani's poor showing up to that point. If Thompson can pull out a win in South Carolina right before Florida, he could use that momentum to overtake Rudy in Florida, or Romney might even have such a tidal wave rolling by South Carolina that he wins there and goes on to win Florida. Whatever happens, if Rudy can't take at least one early-primary state from Romney or Thompson's columns, he will have a very tough time pulling out a victory in Florida. His best shots at doing that at this point seem to be New Hampshire or South Carolina. Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't. We'll just have to wait and see what the Hizzoner's got up his sleeves.