Michigan Results

Here they are:

Mitt Romney- 39%
John McCain- 30%
Mike Huckabee- 16%
Ron Paul- 6%
Fred Thompson- 4%
Rudy Giuliani- 3%
Uncommitted- 2%
Duncan Hunter- 0%

Mitt Romney definitely deserved this win. Though the MSM, certainly no fans of Romney, will attempt to write this win off as a result of the fact that Romney's father was a governor of the state, this fact is simply not so. First of all, George Romney (Mitt's father) is not remembered fondly in Michigan and any effect his governorship had on Mitt's campaign would likely be negative. Secondly, McCain won this state in 2000 and still had strong residual support. Lastly, Romney was able to win despite a flood of Democrats and Independents (by-and-large McCain voters) that voted in the open Republican primary because no delegates were being awarded on the Democratic side and Hillary Clinton was the only major candidate on the ballot.

The real question in need of an answer after last night's results is how Mitt was able to win in a state that he had boasted only statistically insignificant leads in all year long after two damaging losses to his top rivals in the state, but was not able to win the states of Iowa and New Hampshire where he lead consistently and by large margins throughout most of the year. The answer lies in the platform on which Mitt ran in each of these states. In Iowa Mitt ran as religious, morally conservative Mitt. In New Hampshire Mitt ran as the change candidate. In Michigan, however, Mitt ran on the platform most closely resembling the platform on which he ran as Governor of Massachusetts-- that of pragmatic, Mr-Fixit Mitt. In Massachusetts, and now Michigan, this Mitt Romney was able to draw in thousands of moderates, independents, and Democrats while still maintaining strong support from Republicans.

Whether or not Mitt's sudden about-face on social issues was genuine is irrelevant. The fact is if Mitt had remained true to his 2002 positions (those which I believe he truly supports), he would have won New Hampshire and won even more handily in Michigan. He still would have lost Iowa, but no amount of political wriggling could have put him farther to the right on social issues than Mike Huckabee. Iowa was a lost cause for Mitt from day one, but instead of accepting that he chose to mold himself to the stances of that one tiny sliver of the electorate that is so radically different from the nation as a whole. If the Mitt Romney running for POTUS today was the genuine and successful Mr-Fixit rather than the seemingly "slick" Mr-Morals, Mitt would have a much better shot at winning the nomination and very conceivably the White House. But, alas, the Mitt Romney running today might still win the Republican nomination, but has almost no shot at the White House.

What a shame.

.

Final Michigan Predictions

The Michigan primaries are tomorrow which means it's time for my official predictions. RCP's poll averages put Romney a statistically insignificant 0.7% ahead and tomorrow's primary is a true toss-up. I will go out on a limb and predict a McCain win tomorrow despite the most recent polls showing an upward trend for Romney. I really have no reasoning behind this and am simply following my gut. I'm hoping that if Romney does lose tomorrow he will forgo a trudge to the end hoping for a brokered convention and drop out, endorsing McCain and solidifying the anti-Huck vote.

The Numbers:

John McCain 28%
Mitt Romney 27%
Mike Huckabee 18%
Rudy Giuliani 12%
Fred Thompson 9%
Ron Paul 6%

This is sure to be a VERY interesting contest...

Immigration Food for Thought

Some immigration food for thought.

Look tomorrow for my final Michigan predictions.

Hillary Cried, Obama Died

I must eat crow. Last night's Democratic results came as a huge surprise for me (as you might have guessed considering I had predicted an Obama win by 9 points). In the end, I truly believe Hillary's crying is what gave her victory last night because she overcame her image as a cold, calculating politician and won over seniors and women with this softer, more human side. Independents also helped Hillary win. After a week of media coverage that Obama would win by double digits, they thought their favorite Democrat was safe enough to venture into the Republican primary and cast their votes for the President of New Hampshire, John McCain himself. This is why Hillary and McCain both over-performed their expectations last night.

It now comes down to one last chance for Mitt Romney to save face in Michigan, but he will be hard-pressed to beat McCain in what is sure to be a brutal slug-fest. Personally, I'm rooting for McCain in this one because if Romney was to win, the nomination would be all but wrapped up for Huckabee.

Final New Hampshire results:

GOP

• John McCain 37%
  
• Mitt Romney 32%
  
• Mike Huckabee 11%
  
• Rudy Giuliani 9%
  
• Ron Paul 8%
  
• Fred Thompson 1%

DEM

• Hillary Clinton 39%
  
• Barack Obama 36%
  
• John Edwards 17%
  
• Bill Richardson 5%
• Dennis Kucinich 1%

One interesting tidbit from last night...

Final New Hampshire Predictions

Well Iowa and Wyoming have come and gone with Huckabee and Romney each receiving a win. Now it's the "crusty," libertarian-leaning New Hampshire voters' turn to cast their ballots. While the fallout from Iowa was much less severe on the Republican side than I had predicted (i.e. Thompson and Hunter staying in, Romney not being too damaged), I will largely stand by my previous NH predictions. I still predict McCain to prevail tomorrow, but Romney cannot be underestimated. His ground game and GOTV efforts are second to none and he will benefit from these much more in New Hampshire's day-long primary than he did during the 30-minute Iowa caucuses.

Obama's huge win in Iowa will not help McCain's chances as many Independents (who can vote in either party's primary in NH) will vote for Obama to keep him alive and propel him towards the nomination. This is problem because McCain's most loyal voting bloc is composed primarily of Independents who might think Obama is more deserving of their vote.

These factors are sure to make tomorrow's election a nail-biter, but I am brave enough to make numerical guestimations:

The Numbers:

GOP

John McCain 33%
Mitt Romney 30%
Rudy Giuliani 12%
Ron Paul 11%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Thompson 4%

DEM

Barack Obama 40%
Hillary Clinton 31%
John Edwards 22%
Bill Richardson 7%

As I believe John McCain and Barack Obama will be the nominees come November, perhaps Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) was correct when-- in 1988 while serving as governor of New Hampshire-- he said, "Iowa picks corn; New Hampshire picks presidents."

Final Iowa Results

With 100% of precincts (finally) reporting on both sides of the aisle, here are the final results from the Iowa Caucuses.

GOP

• Huckabee 34.4%
• Romney 25.2%
• Thompson 13.4%
• McCain 13.1%
• Paul 10.0%
• Giuliani 3.5%
• Hunter 0.4%

DEM

• Obama 37.6%%
  
• Edwards 29.7%
  
• Clinton 29.5%
  
• Richardson 2.1%
  
• Biden 0.9%
  
• Dodd 0.0%

This is bad news for Romney who will likely lose in New Hampshire to John McCain. However, the Obama win could help Romney as many Independents (who can vote in either primary in NH) will vote for Obama to boost him above Hillary. As McCain's largest bloc of voters are Independents, this could be a major setback. With Thompson's stronger than expected showing, he will not drop out of the race, and has focuses his resources on South Carolina. Thompson, McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani will all be competing extremely heavily in South Carolina. I project Obama to be the Democratic nominee as him will most certainly win New Hampshire and destroy Hillary's image of inevitability. The GOP nomination is still in the air, but my money is on McCain.

***UPDATE***: Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have dropped out of the race.

Look for my updated New Hampshire predictions on the 7th.

Romney Wins Wyoming Caucuses

Romney won today's caucuses in Wyoming, according to CNN.

(CNN) -- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will win the Wyoming Republican caucuses, CNN projects.

With 67 percent of caucuses reporting, Romney has won six of Wyoming's 12 delegates.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and California Rep. Duncan Hunter have each won one delegate.

Wyoming's Republican contest comes two days after the Iowa caucuses and three days before the New Hampshire primary.

The early date of the Wyoming GOP county conventions was intended to draw candidates' attention to the state, but has had only modest results.

Republican hopefuls Romney, Hunter, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul all stopped by the state -- visits they probably wouldn't have made except for this year's early conventions -- and candidates have sent Wyoming's GOP voters a flood of campaign mail.

The traditional leadoff nomination contests in Iowa and New Hampshire have dominated the attention of both candidates and the national media in recent months, and no candidates visited Wyoming in the four weeks leading up to the caucuses.

***UPDATE***: Fox News is reporting that Romney won 8 of the 12 delegates allocated today with Duncan Hunter winning one and Fred Thompson taking the remaining three.

Final Predictions & Rankings Update

After over a year of waiting, the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow! What an incredible road it has been getting here. The time has come for me to make my final predictions, so here they are:

Iowa: Though Mike Huckabee has seen his support drop after his very high numbers in late November and early December, I predict a Huckabee win tomorrow in the Hawkeye state. This win while certainly beneficial to the Huckster, will have a much more momentous impact on Mitt Romney. Despite finishing a close second, Romney will lose what little edge he maintained over McCain in New Hampshire and he cannot possibly survive losses in both states. McCain will finish a surprisingly strong third in this Midwestern state which has not bought McCain's brand of conservativism in the past. Ron Paul will come in an incredible fourth place, due to his loyal and dedicated supporters who will attend their caucuses regardless of how nasty the weather is or how exciting the Orange Bowl is. After his fifth place finish, Thompson will drop out and endorse his former colleague, John McCain. Hunter will also drop out, though his endorsement is much harder to predict.

The Numbers:
Huckabee- 30%
Romney- 28%
McCain- 13%
Paul- 12%
Thompson- 10%
Giuliani- 6%
Hunter- 1%


New Hampshire: After his disappointing loss in Iowa, New Hampshire voters will again turn to their wonder boy, John McCain to save them from the horror of a Mike Huckabee candidacy (New Hampshire, with its fiscally conservative, socially moderate, and foreign policy moderate Republican Party, finds the Hucksters brand of... whatever he's calling it these days... to be extremely distasteful). After finishing third in Iowa and receiving the endorsement of Thompson, New Hampshire has an excuse to vote for John and his newfound viability. Romney will not easily survive his loss here.

The Numbers:
McCain- 34%
Romney- 27%
Paul- 15%
Giuliani- 14%
Huckabee- 9%


Michigan: Michigan will bring about another win for McCain following his win in New Hampshire. He has considerable support in the state and will only benefit from a New Hampshire win. Giuliani, once a strong contender in Michigan, will find it difficult to place well here after being bested by Ron Paul in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney, whose father was a former governor of Michigan and is somewhat of a favorite son, will come in second (yet again). In Michigan, a state with much more diversity than Iowa and New Hampshire, the competition will be much tighter.

The Numbers:
McCain- 27%
Romney- 24%
Giuliani- 20%
Huckabee- 19%
Paul- 10%


South Carolina: Mike Huckabee, with his strong Southern roots, is banking on a win on this familiar turf. However, John McCain also has considerable support in the state, and Romney and Giuliani have polled well here for months now. This race will also be extremely tight. Due to how much could change between now and January 19, the day South Carolina holds its primary, I will not include actual numbers as they are simply too hard to predict (I may regret making numerical guesses in New Hampshire and Michigan, too), however, I will predict a McCain win here with Huckabee in second, Romney in third, and Giuliani in fourth.


Florida: Ahhh, how things will have changed by the time Florida rolls around on the 29th... The state that was supposed to be Rudy Giuliani's firewall and launch him into a landslide victory of Super-Duper-Mega-Giga-Ultra Tuesday, will no longer be securely in the mayor's hands. While Huckabee and Romney each have considerable support in Florida, few votes lost by the Mayor will go to these two, rather those defecting from the sinking USS Rudolph will find suitable accommodation aboard McCain's ship. He will narrowly defeat Huckabee, and, thus, secure the nomination.


Mark my words, John McCain will be the Republican nominee. And for obvious reasons, a reshuffling of the rankings is in order. The new rankings will be as follows (with previous rankings in parentheses):

1. John McCain (3)
2. Mike Huckabee (1)
3. Mitt Romney (2)
4. Rudy Giuliani (4)
5. Ron Paul (5)
6. Fred Thompson (6)
7. Duncan Hunter (7)
8. Alan Keyes (8)