Michigan Results

Here they are:

Mitt Romney- 39%
John McCain- 30%
Mike Huckabee- 16%
Ron Paul- 6%
Fred Thompson- 4%
Rudy Giuliani- 3%
Uncommitted- 2%
Duncan Hunter- 0%

Mitt Romney definitely deserved this win. Though the MSM, certainly no fans of Romney, will attempt to write this win off as a result of the fact that Romney's father was a governor of the state, this fact is simply not so. First of all, George Romney (Mitt's father) is not remembered fondly in Michigan and any effect his governorship had on Mitt's campaign would likely be negative. Secondly, McCain won this state in 2000 and still had strong residual support. Lastly, Romney was able to win despite a flood of Democrats and Independents (by-and-large McCain voters) that voted in the open Republican primary because no delegates were being awarded on the Democratic side and Hillary Clinton was the only major candidate on the ballot.

The real question in need of an answer after last night's results is how Mitt was able to win in a state that he had boasted only statistically insignificant leads in all year long after two damaging losses to his top rivals in the state, but was not able to win the states of Iowa and New Hampshire where he lead consistently and by large margins throughout most of the year. The answer lies in the platform on which Mitt ran in each of these states. In Iowa Mitt ran as religious, morally conservative Mitt. In New Hampshire Mitt ran as the change candidate. In Michigan, however, Mitt ran on the platform most closely resembling the platform on which he ran as Governor of Massachusetts-- that of pragmatic, Mr-Fixit Mitt. In Massachusetts, and now Michigan, this Mitt Romney was able to draw in thousands of moderates, independents, and Democrats while still maintaining strong support from Republicans.

Whether or not Mitt's sudden about-face on social issues was genuine is irrelevant. The fact is if Mitt had remained true to his 2002 positions (those which I believe he truly supports), he would have won New Hampshire and won even more handily in Michigan. He still would have lost Iowa, but no amount of political wriggling could have put him farther to the right on social issues than Mike Huckabee. Iowa was a lost cause for Mitt from day one, but instead of accepting that he chose to mold himself to the stances of that one tiny sliver of the electorate that is so radically different from the nation as a whole. If the Mitt Romney running for POTUS today was the genuine and successful Mr-Fixit rather than the seemingly "slick" Mr-Morals, Mitt would have a much better shot at winning the nomination and very conceivably the White House. But, alas, the Mitt Romney running today might still win the Republican nomination, but has almost no shot at the White House.

What a shame.

.

Hillary Cried, Obama Died

I must eat crow. Last night's Democratic results came as a huge surprise for me (as you might have guessed considering I had predicted an Obama win by 9 points). In the end, I truly believe Hillary's crying is what gave her victory last night because she overcame her image as a cold, calculating politician and won over seniors and women with this softer, more human side. Independents also helped Hillary win. After a week of media coverage that Obama would win by double digits, they thought their favorite Democrat was safe enough to venture into the Republican primary and cast their votes for the President of New Hampshire, John McCain himself. This is why Hillary and McCain both over-performed their expectations last night.

It now comes down to one last chance for Mitt Romney to save face in Michigan, but he will be hard-pressed to beat McCain in what is sure to be a brutal slug-fest. Personally, I'm rooting for McCain in this one because if Romney was to win, the nomination would be all but wrapped up for Huckabee.

Final New Hampshire results:

GOP

• John McCain 37%
  
• Mitt Romney 32%
  
• Mike Huckabee 11%
  
• Rudy Giuliani 9%
  
• Ron Paul 8%
  
• Fred Thompson 1%

DEM

• Hillary Clinton 39%
  
• Barack Obama 36%
  
• John Edwards 17%
  
• Bill Richardson 5%
• Dennis Kucinich 1%

One interesting tidbit from last night...

Final Iowa Results

With 100% of precincts (finally) reporting on both sides of the aisle, here are the final results from the Iowa Caucuses.

GOP

• Huckabee 34.4%
• Romney 25.2%
• Thompson 13.4%
• McCain 13.1%
• Paul 10.0%
• Giuliani 3.5%
• Hunter 0.4%

DEM

• Obama 37.6%%
  
• Edwards 29.7%
  
• Clinton 29.5%
  
• Richardson 2.1%
  
• Biden 0.9%
  
• Dodd 0.0%

This is bad news for Romney who will likely lose in New Hampshire to John McCain. However, the Obama win could help Romney as many Independents (who can vote in either primary in NH) will vote for Obama to boost him above Hillary. As McCain's largest bloc of voters are Independents, this could be a major setback. With Thompson's stronger than expected showing, he will not drop out of the race, and has focuses his resources on South Carolina. Thompson, McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani will all be competing extremely heavily in South Carolina. I project Obama to be the Democratic nominee as him will most certainly win New Hampshire and destroy Hillary's image of inevitability. The GOP nomination is still in the air, but my money is on McCain.

***UPDATE***: Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have dropped out of the race.

Look for my updated New Hampshire predictions on the 7th.

Romney Wins Wyoming Caucuses

Romney won today's caucuses in Wyoming, according to CNN.

(CNN) -- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will win the Wyoming Republican caucuses, CNN projects.

With 67 percent of caucuses reporting, Romney has won six of Wyoming's 12 delegates.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and California Rep. Duncan Hunter have each won one delegate.

Wyoming's Republican contest comes two days after the Iowa caucuses and three days before the New Hampshire primary.

The early date of the Wyoming GOP county conventions was intended to draw candidates' attention to the state, but has had only modest results.

Republican hopefuls Romney, Hunter, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul all stopped by the state -- visits they probably wouldn't have made except for this year's early conventions -- and candidates have sent Wyoming's GOP voters a flood of campaign mail.

The traditional leadoff nomination contests in Iowa and New Hampshire have dominated the attention of both candidates and the national media in recent months, and no candidates visited Wyoming in the four weeks leading up to the caucuses.

***UPDATE***: Fox News is reporting that Romney won 8 of the 12 delegates allocated today with Duncan Hunter winning one and Fred Thompson taking the remaining three.