Saturday, December 22, 2007
A Two-Man Race?
Friday, December 21, 2007
He Won't Be Touting This One...
Since he is running in the Republican primaries for president, don’t expect Mike Huckabee to be advertising the strong endorsement he just got from Ted Strickland, Ohio’s Democratic governor.
It seems Mr. Strickland, who typically racked up a 95% rating from the liberal Americans for Democratic Action durng his 16 years in Congress, has discovered a kindred spirit in Mr. Huckabee. He told the Cincinnati Enquirer last Sunday that “he’s the kind of combination of conservative views in some ways, but very, almost liberal views in other ways.” He concluded that “of all the ;Republican candidates, Mr. Huckabee would be my personal choice.”
Can Huckabee really claim to be an authentic conservative when a even a left-wing governor finds the Huckster's views to be "almost liberal"?
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Rankings 2.1
1) Mike Huckabee (1)
2) Mitt Romney (2)
3) John McCain (4)
4) Rudy Giuliani (3)
5) Ron Paul (6)
6) Fred Thompson (5)
7) Duncan Hunter (7)
8) Alan Keyes (9)
Tancredo Ending Bid
Fluidity to an Extreme
Here are today's polls. Keep in mind, however, that ARG has a long-standing history of over-polling the Senator and the accuracy of these polls is certainly extremely disputable.
ARG GOP Iowa Caucus
* Mike Huckabee 28% (27%)
* John McCain 20% (9%)
* Mitt Romney 17% (28%)
* Rudy Giuliani 13% (9%)
* Fred Thompson 5% (14%)
* Ron Paul 4% (3%)
* Undecided 11% (9%)
Survey of 600 likely Republican caucus goers (526 Republicans and 74 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26-29 are in parentheses.
ARG GOP New Hampshire Primary
* John McCain 26% (11%)
* Mitt Romney 26% (36%)
* Rudy Giuliani 16% (22%)
* Mike Huckabee 11% (13%)
* Ron Paul 4% (2%)
* Fred Thompson 4% (3%)
* Undecided 10% (12%)
Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (484 Republicans and 116 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26-29 are in parentheses.
Lastly, today's Rasmussen Daily National Tracking Poll is extremely intriguing. This is Giuliani's lowest posting in any national poll since national polling for the 2008 election began. John McCain has also risen from his long time at number four or five and into a second-place tie with Romney.
Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
* Mike Huckabee 21%
* John McCain 15%
* Mitt Romney 15%
* Rudy Giuliani 13%
* Fred Thompson 12%
* Ron Paul 6%
Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
The fact that Giuliani could go from national front-runner to scraping fourth place in a Rasmussen poll in a matter of days shows just how fluid this race is. There are only fourteen days left till the Iowa caucuses and Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Mike Huckabee all have a decent shot at winning the nomination. When this race is over, it will make one incredible book.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Rankings 2.0
1) Mike Huckabee (5)
2) Mitt Romney (1)
3) Rudy Giuliani (2)
4) John McCain (4)
5) Fred Thompson (3)
6) Ron Paul (6)
7) Duncan Hunter (7)
8) Tom Tancredo (8)
9) Alan Keyes (9)
The most glaring change is the upward movement of Huckabee from 5th to 1st. I cannot express the sadness this brings me. The GOP will put the final nail in their coffin if they nominate Huckabee as thousands of fiscal conservatives and social moderates will flock to other parties. How can we vote for a man who has advocated for quarantine of AIDS patients and begged for higher taxes while governor of Arkansas? Doubt the claims that Huck is a fiscal liberal? Watch this...
Well anyway, the other major movement is Fred Thompson's fall from third to fifth. Other than that, the only other movements were Romney's fall from first to second and Giuliani's slide from second to third.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Can You Say, "Death Wish"?
Des Moines Register Iowa Caucus Poll, conducted Dec, 1st, 2007.
* Mike Huckabee 29%
* Mitt Romney 24%
* Rudy Giuliani 13%
* Fred Thompson 9%
* John McCain 7%
* Ron Paul 7%
* Tom Tancredo 6%
* Undecided 4%
Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
* Mike Huckabee 20%
* Rudy Giuliani 17%
* John McCain 13%
* Mitt Romney 13%
* Fred Thompson 10%
* Ron Paul 7%
If you doubt that a Huck nomination could have such an immense negative impact on the GOP, I strongly recommend reading this, this, this, this, and this.
Also, this site is very enlightening.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Romney to Give THE Speech
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Can You Say "Mittmentum"?
Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
* Rudy Giuliani 26% (27)
* Mitt Romney 17% (16)
* John McCain 13% (13)
* Fred Thompson 12% (11)
* Mike Huckabee 11% (11)
* Ron Paul 5% (5)
Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
ARG GOP National Primary
* Rudy Giuliani 25% (24%)
* Mitt Romney 21% (15%)
* Fred Thompson 17% (16%)
* John McCain 12% (14%)
* Mike Huckabee 6% (6%)
* Ron Paul 4% (2%)
* Undecided 12% (17%)
Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 9-12. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted in October are in parentheses.
Mitt's recent rise in national polling dispels one of his detractors' main criticism: that despite spending millions more than his opponents, he still polls in the single digits nationally. Now Romney is polling in the high teens and even into the low twenties. To those detractors, open mouth, insert foot.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Rasmussen Daily National Poll
Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
* Rudy Giuliani 27%
* Mitt Romney 16%
* John McCain 13%
* Fred Thompson 11%
* Mike Huckabee 11%
* Ron Paul 5%
Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
Several important things to note:
The rise of Romney,
The fall of Thompson,
The rise of Huckabee,
The stagnancy of McCain,
The upward inching of Paul,
The extremely slow but steady downward march of Giuliani.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Endorsement Race Heat Up
Perhaps the most weighty of this latest slew of endorsements, however, is one received by John McCain. This week, Senator Brownback (KS), a candidate for president until late October, announce his support for his fellow Senator. Brownback has very considerable clout among the so-cons and his endorsement will take on that of Robertson as so-cons make up their minds about whom they will support.
To see a complete list of endorsements from currently serving United States Representatives and Senators, check The Hill's list here.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Ron Paul's 4.2 Million Dollar Day
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Why Mike Huckabee Is More Dangerous for the GOP than Giuliani
Mike Huckabee is an extremely quickly rising star in the Republican presidential race. I believe he is perhaps the most articulate, faith-based, and inspiring social conservative in the race. While I have immense respect for him, I would never in a million years consider pulling the lever for him in the primaries. I would much sooner vote for even Ron Paul.
The reasoning behind this comes from the divisive effect a Huckabee nomination would have on our party. While many conservatives have threatened defection in the event of a Giuliani nomination, a ticket with Huckabee at the top would lead to certain defeat.
Huckabee is shaping up to be what George W. Bush was supposed to be in 2000: a compassionate conservative. Huckabee is a former baptist minister with an impeccable record on social issues... and a set of economic policies to the left of Bill Richardson. He is extremely liberal on economic policies and is politically nearer Al Gore than Ronald Reagan.
His positions are a very close fit with those of the upper mid-west states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Dakotas, and to a lesser degree Colorado and Nebraska. While this group of voters is shaping up to be extremely important in 2008, Huckabee repels boatloads of voters from other groups. The pro-business, social-moderate, and libertarian wings of the party, while not centered in any geographical area as most populists are, will find a Huckabee nomination as the final nail in the coffin that Bush has been so busy nailing up the last few years.
A Huckabee nomination would also be a thorn in the GOP's side for at least the next two decades. George W. Bush, while just as great a man as anyone, has left the Republican Party in tatters and Huckabee would do naught but make the last few tears needed to completely splinter the GOP. Huckabee very closely resembles Bush in his policies and, frankly, I'm scared by that.
Bush and Huckabee are standard-bearers for the extreme so-cons that have hijacked the Republican Party in recent years. If any kind of conservatism is fading, it's the social variety. In this quickly evolving world, the ideas presented by social conservatism seem outdated. What people want now is government that focuses not on fighting proxy wars as the Baby Boomers have done incessantly, but officials that focus on solving problems. To use the terms of race42008.com poster DaveG, people want technocratic pragmatists.
Democrats have proven capable of adapting to this change in desires with politicians like Janet Napolitano, Mark Warner, Bill Richardson, Jim Webb, Bob Casey, and countless Congressmen and Women. Republicans, however, have been a little slower adapting to this radical change. With exceptions in the forms of Sarah Palin, Charlie Crist, Mark Sanford, and Richard Lugar, the GOP has continuously put forth Boomer proxy warrior after Boomer proxy warrior.
If we cannot adapt, we will fade into inconsequentiality. Huckabee and Bush have proven ignorant of this shift through the countless statements made by both men declaring GOP endorsement of such philosophy as an abandonment of principles. While perhaps it departs from their core principles, those principles are fading into the minority.
As Republicans, we must accept this change and prepare to be mediating back-seat drivers for a decade. Our other option is to listen to the ad nauseum indoctrination of Huckabee/Bush and become intoxicated upon our own ignorance. As we know, intoxicated persons' reasoning is seldom adhered to in vehicles and the same is true in politics.
Therefore, I am opposed to Mike Huckabee not on a personal level, but because I believe he will a) indefinitely divide our party, b) lose against Hillary, and c) cause the GOP to fade into inconsequentiality. Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain have proved more understanding of this necessity and would all act more upon reason as opposed to a personal philosophy unfitting of the nation it is being applied to.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Sam Brownback Drops Out
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Texas Governor Rick Perry Endorses Giuliani
Sunday, October 14, 2007
All Quiet on the Western Front
Friday, October 5, 2007
Henry Kissinger Endorses McCain
Rasmussen National Poll
Rasmussen Reports Daily National Republican Primary Tracking Poll
Thompson - 21%
Giuliani - 19%
Romney - 16%
McCain - 11%
Huckabee - 4%
Paul - 3%
Favorability Among Republicans:
Giuliani - 66%
Romney - 62%
Thompson - 61%
McCain - 61%
Several important things to note here. First and foremost, Giuliani is within the margin of error of Thompson and Romney is within the margin of error of Giuliani. These are huge developements, as Romney is beginning to show real strength in national polls: something he has proved incapable of doing up until this point. Also, the fall of Thompson is an important, but not unexpected, event. Another key info bit is the fact that Romney's favorability rating has surpassed that of Thompson and McCain. He has previously hovered around in the 50's and this is a huge step for him. If Mitt can use these polls to show that he can contend not only in states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, and Wyoming, but also on a national level, he could begin to see his numbers grow exponentially.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
DaveG's At It Again...
Monday, October 1, 2007
3rd Quarter Fundraising
Well, the third quarter of fundraising is over and the currently known totals are...
Republicans
Rudy Giuliani -- $12 million
Mitt Romney -- $10 million (plus $8 million, self-finance)
Thompson -- $9 million
McCain -- $5 million
Paul -- $5 million
Huckabee -- $1 million
Democrats
Clinton -- $22 million (Plus $5 million for general election)
Obama -- $19 million (Plus $1 million for general election)
Edwards -- $7 million
Richardson -- $5.2 million
Biden -- $1.9 million
Dodd -- $1.5 million
I will be updating the list as campaigns release their totals. Noteworthy is the fact that Texas Congressman Ron Paul raised $1 million in the last week: exceeding his goal of $500,000. That is a spectacular amount for a third-tier candidate like Paul, and his 3Q numbers are extremely impressive for a third-tier candidate at $5 million. Romney Kansas Senator Sam Brownback's numbers are also being eagerly awaited as his campaign is struggling to stay afloat financially after pouring almost all of their money into the Ames straw poll only to finish third. If Brownback can't produce anything decent, he may be forced to drop out despite earlier claims that he would stay in until at least the Iowa caucus. Huckabee's numbers were extremely dismal for someone who has been trying desperately to break into the top tier after a second place finish at Ames. Stay tuned...
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Gingrich: Out!
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Old Robert Byrd...
Though he's right on this one, Robert Byrd is a very odd chap. He's simply senile.
Here are some other Robert Byrd clips. I strongly recommend watching them:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-V95eGgZbrU
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ocWuPkNLla4
http://youtube.com/watch?v=SNWbMGzT20c&mode=related&search
http://youtube.com/watch?v=0FIBJt-c2o0&mode=related&search
http://youtube.com/watch?v=RmY1g9dAfx8
The problem is that in West Virginia, Byrd can run for reelection and win until the cows come home.
With people such as Sen. Byrd and Sen. Ted Stevens being in national political spotlight so often these days, the issue of congressional term limits could become a fairly important issue in the future. In a nation handing over political domination to a younger generation extremely frustrated with the baby-boomers who have run the country for some time now, we very well may begin to see some policy in the future (likely not until 2012 or even 2016) that could essentially kick the baby-boomers out of Congress and prevent any future generation from abusing power as much as the boomers have.
We can, however, be sure that 2008 will not be that year. It is shaping up to be a race between Hillary Clinton and either Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani. Either of these races would present baby-boomers with ultimate final battle between the "Hipsters and the Prudes," as Camille Paglia's dichotomy puts it. If the political landscape in 2008 is still as it was in 2006, the Hipsters might just win this final showdown...
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Mitt Romney nabs Kay Granger Endorsement
Rasmussen Florida Poll
Rasmussen Florida GOP Primary Poll
Rudy Giuliani 29% (-1)
Fred Thompson 23% (+6)
John McCain 12% (+5)
Mitt Romney 11% (-4)
Mike Huckabee 3% (+1)
Rudy Giuliani's strategy is to hang on through Mitt Romney's projected wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wyoming, and possibly Michigan and Fred Thompson's projected win in South Carolina, and pull out a win in Florida, right before Super-Duper-Mega-Giga-Ultra Tuesday. His strategy is then to go into Feb 5 with the buzz and momentum from a win in Florida and then to wrap up the nomination with wins in delegate-rich states like California and New Jersey where he is currently leading. The problem with this plan is that by the time Florida comes around, people will likely be very disappointed with Giuliani's poor showing up to that point. If Thompson can pull out a win in South Carolina right before Florida, he could use that momentum to overtake Rudy in Florida, or Romney might even have such a tidal wave rolling by South Carolina that he wins there and goes on to win Florida. Whatever happens, if Rudy can't take at least one early-primary state from Romney or Thompson's columns, he will have a very tough time pulling out a victory in Florida. His best shots at doing that at this point seem to be New Hampshire or South Carolina. Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't. We'll just have to wait and see what the Hizzoner's got up his sleeves.
Monday, September 24, 2007
DaveG: Rockefeller Democrats and Truman Republicans
SurveyUSA New Hampshire General Election Poll
New Hampshire:
Clinton 47
Giuliani 47
Clinton 51
Thompson 41
Romney 45
Clinton 44
Hmmm... Interesting. Mitt Romney, the man who most people claim is the least electable of any of the major Republican candidates seems to be the only Republican beating Hillary in New Hampshire, a state John Kerry carried in 2004. I think this poll demonstrates two things: a) the people who know Mitt the best and who are paying the most attention to him, like him; b) the people who know Hillary the best and are paying the most attention to her, dislike her. Interesting...
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Willard Mitt Romney: Republicans Only Hope
Executive Experience: No one running for POTUS on any side of the aisle comes close to having the executive experience of Mitt. As a corporate executive in the private sector, he gained the finesse needed to run any kind of organization whether it is in the business sector or governmental sector. His term as Governor of Massachusetts demonstrates his immense leadership capabilities in an executive role phenomenally. He was able to further conservative interests in a state in which Democrats control the state Senate with a 34:5 advantage and the state House with a 140:19 advantage. Taking just ten minutes to look over his record as governor will show just what an amazing job he did considering the ultra-liberal legislature he had to deal with.
Strongly Recommended Videos:
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=32992
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=32994
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=45834
Campaign Theme: One of the things I like most about Romney is his theme of “Bringing Change to Washington.” I think change really is needed in Washington and that the majority of Americans would agree with me. No Republican can win in 2008 if they are perceived as being a continuation of the current president. This is the main reason that I think Fred Thompson is the worst person Republicans could nominate: he simply cannot win. Romney on the other hand, seems to acknowledge the fact that the Republican Party has been led astray under President Bush and that is what the American people want to hear. In a Congress rocked by scandal, few self-proclaimed supporters of family values can truly put their money where their mouth is. Even among Romney’s fellow members of the Big Four (Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson) there is a total of eight wives. Romney’s had one wife, Ann, for thirty-seven years. He truly is a family values man who can bring real change to Washington.
Strongly Recommended Videos:
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=378734
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=33000
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=37085
Electability: Few people realize how big a threat Hillary Clinton is when it comes to the general election. Most seem to think that America simply won’t elect her: she’s too polarizing. Forget it. Hillary can win. Republicans must release the notion that the Bush states of ’04 are safe. They aren’t. 2008 is going to be an extremely tough fight, but Mitt can win. Against Hillary Clinton, Fred Thompson and John McCain will definitely lose. Rudy Giuliani could make it close, but even he would have a very tough time beating Hillary. The notion that Mitt can’t win because he’s changed his positions or flip-flopped is false. In a Hillary vs. Romney match-up, flip-flopping will be a non-issue: they’ve both done it. One of Hillary’s greatest strength is her Health Care plan. Yes, that’s right: HillaryCare 2.0 is a strength for her campaign. In this age of globalization and world-wide competition, American jobs are moving overseas. Our economy is being surpassed by those of China, Japan, and other Asian countries. Times are rough for the average American. With our current Health Care policy, many Americans are left uninsured. With Hillary’s plan, they will get relief, and that’s what matters. Will the average American educate themselves and realize that they are paying for whatever relief they may get on their medical bills through higher taxes? Nope. The thing is, Romney has a solution. Under Romney’s plan, the average American can have similar relief without paying higher taxes. In essence, it’s actual relief. Romney’s strength on this issue eliminates one of Hillary’s best strengths, and could even make the Health Care crisis a Republican advantage. As a warm, likable man, I think Mitt Romney will mesh well with the American people: he can win.
In conclusion, I think Mitt is the best man the Republican’s could possibly nominate to run against Hillary Clinton for POTUS in 2008. He is an incredible man of great integrity and is strong on so many issues. I think not only is he the best man for the job, but also the most likely to win the nomination. However, the primaries don’t start until January and even just a day is a long time in politics. Only time will tell…