A Two-Man Race?

So says DaveG at Race42008. Read his thorough explanation of why, 12 days before the Iowa caucuses, the race has narrowed to a Romney-McCain showdown here. I agree strongly with his analysis and believe it be the best handicap of the current state of the GOP primary election I have read.

He Won't Be Touting This One...

As Mike Huckabee completes his campaigning blitz leading up to the Iowa caucuses, I don't think he'll be stumping on this endorsement:

Since he is running in the Republican primaries for president, don’t expect Mike Huckabee to be advertising the strong endorsement he just got from Ted Strickland, Ohio’s Democratic governor.

It seems Mr. Strickland, who typically racked up a 95% rating from the liberal Americans for Democratic Action durng his 16 years in Congress, has discovered a kindred spirit in Mr. Huckabee. He told the Cincinnati Enquirer last Sunday that “he’s the kind of combination of conservative views in some ways, but very, almost liberal views in other ways.” He concluded that “of all the ;Republican candidates, Mr. Huckabee would be my personal choice.”

Can Huckabee really claim to be an authentic conservative when a even a left-wing governor finds the Huckster's views to be "almost liberal"?

Rankings 2.1

Once again, I feel a little reshuffling of the rankings is in order after updating them on the 8th. As Huckabee's polling numbers have remained fairly high, he will remain in his position at #1. John McCain has passed up Rudy Giuliani due to the huge fall Rudy has experienced the last few weeks. Tancredo has also been removed per his self-removal from the race. Perhaps the most interesting change is Ron Paul's passing of Fred Thompson. Thompson's numbers haven't risen in months and Ron Paul continues his upward movement. Not to mention his single-day $6 million fundraising blitz this past week that set the all-time fundraising record for a single-day for a primary candidate, surpassing the mark previously made by John Kerry. Numbers in parentheses are the candidates' previous rankings.

1) Mike Huckabee (1)
2) Mitt Romney (2)
3) John McCain (4)
4) Rudy Giuliani (3)
5) Ron Paul (6)
6) Fred Thompson (5)
7) Duncan Hunter (7)
8) Alan Keyes (9)

Tancredo Ending Bid

Tom Tancredo ended his Presidential bid today and, according to MSNBC, has endorsed Mitt Romney.

Fluidity to an Extreme

By far the most appropriate one-word description of the GOP primary race is "fluid." During the Winter 2006 and Spring 2007, it seemed like Rudy Giuliani would run away with the nomination. Over Summer 2007, Romney seemed to have the primary in the bad with huge leads in almost every single early state. Fall 2007 saw the emergence of Huckabee as both the early-state and national front-runner. The story for Winter 2007? At this point, it would appear that John McCain has the greatest chance of becoming the flavor of the season. With a batch of polls released today, McCain's odds seem to be on the up-and-up.

Here are today's polls. Keep in mind, however, that ARG has a long-standing history of over-polling the Senator and the accuracy of these polls is certainly extremely disputable.

ARG GOP Iowa Caucus

* Mike Huckabee 28% (27%)
* John McCain 20% (9%)
* Mitt Romney 17% (28%)
* Rudy Giuliani 13% (9%)
* Fred Thompson 5% (14%)
* Ron Paul 4% (3%)
* Undecided 11% (9%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican caucus goers (526 Republicans and 74 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26-29 are in parentheses.

ARG GOP New Hampshire Primary

* John McCain 26% (11%)
* Mitt Romney 26% (36%)
* Rudy Giuliani 16% (22%)
* Mike Huckabee 11% (13%)
* Ron Paul 4% (2%)
* Fred Thompson 4% (3%)
* Undecided 10% (12%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (484 Republicans and 116 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26-29 are in parentheses.

Lastly, today's Rasmussen Daily National Tracking Poll is extremely intriguing. This is Giuliani's lowest posting in any national poll since national polling for the 2008 election began. John McCain has also risen from his long time at number four or five and into a second-place tie with Romney.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

* Mike Huckabee 21%
* John McCain 15%
* Mitt Romney 15%
* Rudy Giuliani 13%
* Fred Thompson 12%
* Ron Paul 6%

Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

The fact that Giuliani could go from national front-runner to scraping fourth place in a Rasmussen poll in a matter of days shows just how fluid this race is. There are only fourteen days left till the Iowa caucuses and Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Mike Huckabee all have a decent shot at winning the nomination. When this race is over, it will make one incredible book.

Rankings 2.0

For the first time since beginning this blog, I feel it is necessary to update the candidate rankings. Here are the new rankings with previous rankings in parentheses:

1) Mike Huckabee (5)
2) Mitt Romney (1)
3) Rudy Giuliani (2)
4) John McCain (4)
5) Fred Thompson (3)
6) Ron Paul (6)
7) Duncan Hunter (7)
8) Tom Tancredo (8)
9) Alan Keyes (9)

The most glaring change is the upward movement of Huckabee from 5th to 1st. I cannot express the sadness this brings me. The GOP will put the final nail in their coffin if they nominate Huckabee as thousands of fiscal conservatives and social moderates will flock to other parties. How can we vote for a man who has advocated for quarantine of AIDS patients and begged for higher taxes while governor of Arkansas? Doubt the claims that Huck is a fiscal liberal? Watch this...



Well anyway, the other major movement is Fred Thompson's fall from third to fifth. Other than that, the only other movements were Romney's fall from first to second and Giuliani's slide from second to third.

Can You Say, "Death Wish"?

With Huckabee's recent surge in both national and Iowa polling, one can only assume that the Republican Party has a death wish. The man whose politics could easily cause the GOP to find themselves in a long-term minority status. Here are the polls of which I speak:

Des Moines Register Iowa Caucus Poll, conducted Dec, 1st, 2007.

* Mike Huckabee 29%
* Mitt Romney 24%
* Rudy Giuliani 13%
* Fred Thompson 9%
* John McCain 7%
* Ron Paul 7%
* Tom Tancredo 6%
* Undecided 4%

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

* Mike Huckabee 20%
* Rudy Giuliani 17%
* John McCain 13%
* Mitt Romney 13%
* Fred Thompson 10%
* Ron Paul 7%

If you doubt that a Huck nomination could have such an immense negative impact on the GOP, I strongly recommend reading this, this, this, this, and this.

Also, this site is very enlightening.

Romney to Give THE Speech

Mitt Romney, after weeks of stories that he would not, announced Sunday that he would in fact be giving an address on his faith. Romney, a Mormon, will likely follow the model of John F. Kennedy's speech regarding his Catholic faith. This speech has the potential to give Romney a huge boost... or have an immense negative impact if he goes too far. The speech will be given Thursday, December 6th in Bryan-College Station, Texas as the Bush Sr. Presidential Library.