Tex's Spin

Michigan Results

2008-01-16T15:46:00.000-06:00

Here they are:

Mitt Romney- 39%
John McCain- 30%
Mike Huckabee- 16%
Ron Paul- 6%
Fred Thompson- 4%
Rudy Giuliani- 3%
Uncommitted- 2%
Duncan Hunter- 0%

Mitt Romney definitely deserved this win. Though the MSM, certainly no fans of Romney, will attempt to write this win off as a result of the fact that Romney's father was a governor of the state, this fact is simply not so. First of all, George Romney (Mitt's father) is not remembered fondly in Michigan and any effect his governorship had on Mitt's campaign would likely be negative. Secondly, McCain won this state in 2000 and still had strong residual support. Lastly, Romney was able to win despite a flood of Democrats and Independents (by-and-large McCain voters) that voted in the open Republican primary because no delegates were being awarded on the Democratic side and Hillary Clinton was the only major candidate on the ballot.

The real question in need of an answer after last night's results is how Mitt was able to win in a state that he had boasted only statistically insignificant leads in all year long after two damaging losses to his top rivals in the state, but was not able to win the states of Iowa and New Hampshire where he lead consistently and by large margins throughout most of the year. The answer lies in the platform on which Mitt ran in each of these states. In Iowa Mitt ran as religious, morally conservative Mitt. In New Hampshire Mitt ran as the change candidate. In Michigan, however, Mitt ran on the platform most closely resembling the platform on which he ran as Governor of Massachusetts-- that of pragmatic, Mr-Fixit Mitt. In Massachusetts, and now Michigan, this Mitt Romney was able to draw in thousands of moderates, independents, and Democrats while still maintaining strong support from Republicans.

Whether or not Mitt's sudden about-face on social issues was genuine is irrelevant. The fact is if Mitt had remained true to his 2002 positions (those which I believe he truly supports), he would have won New Hampshire and won even more handily in Michigan. He still would have lost Iowa, but no amount of political wriggling could have put him farther to the right on social issues than Mike Huckabee. Iowa was a lost cause for Mitt from day one, but instead of accepting that he chose to mold himself to the stances of that one tiny sliver of the electorate that is so radically different from the nation as a whole. If the Mitt Romney running for POTUS today was the genuine and successful Mr-Fixit rather than the seemingly "slick" Mr-Morals, Mitt would have a much better shot at winning the nomination and very conceivably the White House. But, alas, the Mitt Romney running today might still win the Republican nomination, but has almost no shot at the White House.

What a shame.

.

Final Michigan Predictions

2008-01-14T16:01:00.000-06:00

The Michigan primaries are tomorrow which means it's time for my official predictions. RCP's poll averages put Romney a statistically insignificant 0.7% ahead and tomorrow's primary is a true toss-up. I will go out on a limb and predict a McCain win tomorrow despite the most recent polls showing an upward trend for Romney. I really have no reasoning behind this and am simply following my gut. I'm hoping that if Romney does lose tomorrow he will forgo a trudge to the end hoping for a brokered convention and drop out, endorsing McCain and solidifying the anti-Huck vote.

The Numbers:

John McCain 28%
Mitt Romney 27%
Mike Huckabee 18%
Rudy Giuliani 12%
Fred Thompson 9%
Ron Paul 6%

This is sure to be a VERY interesting contest...

Immigration Food for Thought

2008-01-13T16:12:00.000-06:00

Some immigration food for thought.

Look tomorrow for my final Michigan predictions.

Hillary Cried, Obama Died

2008-01-09T07:23:00.000-06:00

I must eat crow. Last night's Democratic results came as a huge surprise for me (as you might have guessed considering I had predicted an Obama win by 9 points). In the end, I truly believe Hillary's crying is what gave her victory last night because she overcame her image as a cold, calculating politician and won over seniors and women with this softer, more human side. Independents also helped Hillary win. After a week of media coverage that Obama would win by double digits, they thought their favorite Democrat was safe enough to venture into the Republican primary and cast their votes for the President of New Hampshire, John McCain himself. This is why Hillary and McCain both over-performed their expectations last night.

It now comes down to one last chance for Mitt Romney to save face in Michigan, but he will be hard-pressed to beat McCain in what is sure to be a brutal slug-fest. Personally, I'm rooting for McCain in this one because if Romney was to win, the nomination would be all but wrapped up for Huckabee.

Final New Hampshire results:

GOP
John McCain 37%
Mitt Romney 32%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Rudy Giuliani 9%
Ron Paul 8%
Fred Thompson 1%
DEM
Hillary Clinton 39%
Barack Obama 36%
John Edwards 17%
Bill Richardson 5%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

One interesting tidbit from last night...

Final New Hampshire Predictions

2008-01-07T20:22:00.000-06:00

Well Iowa and Wyoming have come and gone with Huckabee and Romney each receiving a win. Now it's the "crusty," libertarian-leaning New Hampshire voters' turn to cast their ballots. While the fallout from Iowa was much less severe on the Republican side than I had predicted (i.e. Thompson and Hunter staying in, Romney not being too damaged), I will largely stand by my previous NH predictions. I still predict McCain to prevail tomorrow, but Romney cannot be underestimated. His ground game and GOTV efforts are second to none and he will benefit from these much more in New Hampshire's day-long primary than he did during the 30-minute Iowa caucuses.

Obama's huge win in Iowa will not help McCain's chances as many Independents (who can vote in either party's primary in NH) will vote for Obama to keep him alive and propel him towards the nomination. This is problem because McCain's most loyal voting bloc is composed primarily of Independents who might think Obama is more deserving of their vote.

These factors are sure to make tomorrow's election a nail-biter, but I am brave enough to make numerical guestimations:

The Numbers:

GOP

John McCain 33%
Mitt Romney 30%
Rudy Giuliani 12%
Ron Paul 11%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Thompson 4%

DEM

Barack Obama 40%
Hillary Clinton 31%
John Edwards 22%
Bill Richardson 7%

As I believe John McCain and Barack Obama will be the nominees come November, perhaps Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) was correct when-- in 1988 while serving as governor of New Hampshire-- he said, "Iowa picks corn; New Hampshire picks presidents."

Final Iowa Results

2008-01-05T16:01:00.001-06:00

With 100% of precincts (finally) reporting on both sides of the aisle, here are the final results from the Iowa Caucuses.

GOP
Huckabee 34.4%
Romney 25.2%
Thompson 13.4%
McCain 13.1%
Paul 10.0%
Giuliani 3.5%
Hunter 0.4%
DEM
Obama 37.6%%
Edwards 29.7%
Clinton 29.5%
Richardson 2.1%
Biden 0.9%
Dodd 0.0%

This is bad news for Romney who will likely lose in New Hampshire to John McCain. However, the Obama win could help Romney as many Independents (who can vote in either primary in NH) will vote for Obama to boost him above Hillary. As McCain's largest bloc of voters are Independents, this could be a major setback. With Thompson's stronger than expected showing, he will not drop out of the race, and has focuses his resources on South Carolina. Thompson, McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani will all be competing extremely heavily in South Carolina. I project Obama to be the Democratic nominee as him will most certainly win New Hampshire and destroy Hillary's image of inevitability. The GOP nomination is still in the air, but my money is on McCain.

***UPDATE***: Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have dropped out of the race.

Look for my updated New Hampshire predictions on the 7th.

Romney Wins Wyoming Caucuses

2008-01-05T15:57:00.000-06:00

Romney won today's caucuses in Wyoming, according to CNN.

(CNN) -- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will win the Wyoming Republican caucuses, CNN projects.

With 67 percent of caucuses reporting, Romney has won six of Wyoming's 12 delegates.
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and California Rep. Duncan Hunter have each won one delegate.
Wyoming's Republican contest comes two days after the Iowa caucuses and three days before the New Hampshire primary.
The early date of the Wyoming GOP county conventions was intended to draw candidates' attention to the state, but has had only modest results.
Republican hopefuls Romney, Hunter, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul all stopped by the state -- visits they probably wouldn't have made except for this year's early conventions -- and candidates have sent Wyoming's GOP voters a flood of campaign mail.
The traditional leadoff nomination contests in Iowa and New Hampshire have dominated the attention of both candidates and the national media in recent months, and no candidates visited Wyoming in the four weeks leading up to the caucuses.

***UPDATE***: Fox News is reporting that Romney won 8 of the 12 delegates allocated today with Duncan Hunter winning one and Fred Thompson taking the remaining three.

Final Predictions & Rankings Update

2008-01-02T11:51:00.000-06:00

After over a year of waiting, the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow! What an incredible road it has been getting here. The time has come for me to make my final predictions, so here they are:

Iowa: Though Mike Huckabee has seen his support drop after his very high numbers in late November and early December, I predict a Huckabee win tomorrow in the Hawkeye state. This win while certainly beneficial to the Huckster, will have a much more momentous impact on Mitt Romney. Despite finishing a close second, Romney will lose what little edge he maintained over McCain in New Hampshire and he cannot possibly survive losses in both states. McCain will finish a surprisingly strong third in this Midwestern state which has not bought McCain's brand of conservativism in the past. Ron Paul will come in an incredible fourth place, due to his loyal and dedicated supporters who will attend their caucuses regardless of how nasty the weather is or how exciting the Orange Bowl is. After his fifth place finish, Thompson will drop out and endorse his former colleague, John McCain. Hunter will also drop out, though his endorsement is much harder to predict.

The Numbers:
Huckabee- 30%
Romney- 28%
McCain- 13%
Paul- 12%
Thompson- 10%
Giuliani- 6%
Hunter- 1%

New Hampshire: After his disappointing loss in Iowa, New Hampshire voters will again turn to their wonder boy, John McCain to save them from the horror of a Mike Huckabee candidacy (New Hampshire, with its fiscally conservative, socially moderate, and foreign policy moderate Republican Party, finds the Hucksters brand of... whatever he's calling it these days... to be extremely distasteful). After finishing third in Iowa and receiving the endorsement of Thompson, New Hampshire has an excuse to vote for John and his newfound viability. Romney will not easily survive his loss here.

The Numbers:
McCain- 34%
Romney- 27%
Paul- 15%
Giuliani- 14%
Huckabee- 9%

Michigan: Michigan will bring about another win for McCain following his win in New Hampshire. He has considerable support in the state and will only benefit from a New Hampshire win. Giuliani, once a strong contender in Michigan, will find it difficult to place well here after being bested by Ron Paul in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney, whose father was a former governor of Michigan and is somewhat of a favorite son, will come in second (yet again). In Michigan, a state with much more diversity than Iowa and New Hampshire, the competition will be much tighter.

The Numbers:
McCain- 27%
Romney- 24%
Giuliani- 20%
Huckabee- 19%
Paul- 10%

South Carolina: Mike Huckabee, with his strong Southern roots, is banking on a win on this familiar turf. However, John McCain also has considerable support in the state, and Romney and Giuliani have polled well here for months now. This race will also be extremely tight. Due to how much could change between now and January 19, the day South Carolina holds its primary, I will not include actual numbers as they are simply too hard to predict (I may regret making numerical guesses in New Hampshire and Michigan, too), however, I will predict a McCain win here with Huckabee in second, Romney in third, and Giuliani in fourth.

Florida: Ahhh, how things will have changed by the time Florida rolls around on the 29th... The state that was supposed to be Rudy Giuliani's firewall and launch him into a landslide victory of Super-Duper-Mega-Giga-Ultra Tuesday, will no longer be securely in the mayor's hands. While Huckabee and Romney each have considerable support in Florida, few votes lost by the Mayor will go to these two, rather those defecting from the sinking USS Rudolph will find suitable accommodation aboard McCain's ship. He will narrowly defeat Huckabee, and, thus, secure the nomination.

Mark my words, John McCain will be the Republican nominee. And for obvious reasons, a reshuffling of the rankings is in order. The new rankings will be as follows (with previous rankings in parentheses):

1. John McCain (3)
2. Mike Huckabee (1)
3. Mitt Romney (2)
4. Rudy Giuliani (4)
5. Ron Paul (5)
6. Fred Thompson (6)
7. Duncan Hunter (7)
8. Alan Keyes (8)

A Two-Man Race?

2007-12-22T10:01:00.000-06:00

So says DaveG at Race42008. Read his thorough explanation of why, 12 days before the Iowa caucuses, the race has narrowed to a Romney-McCain showdown here. I agree strongly with his analysis and believe it be the best handicap of the current state of the GOP primary election I have read.

He Won't Be Touting This One...

2007-12-21T18:19:00.001-06:00

As Mike Huckabee completes his campaigning blitz leading up to the Iowa caucuses, I don't think he'll be stumping on this endorsement:

Since he is running in the Republican primaries for president, don’t expect Mike Huckabee to be advertising the strong endorsement he just got from Ted Strickland, Ohio’s Democratic governor.

It seems Mr. Strickland, who typically racked up a 95% rating from the liberal Americans for Democratic Action durng his 16 years in Congress, has discovered a kindred spirit in Mr. Huckabee. He told the Cincinnati Enquirer last Sunday that “he’s the kind of combination of conservative views in some ways, but very, almost liberal views in other ways.” He concluded that “of all the ;Republican candidates, Mr. Huckabee would be my personal choice.”

Can Huckabee really claim to be an authentic conservative when a even a left-wing governor finds the Huckster's views to be "almost liberal"?

Rankings 2.1

2007-12-20T14:54:00.000-06:00

Once again, I feel a little reshuffling of the rankings is in order after updating them on the 8th. As Huckabee's polling numbers have remained fairly high, he will remain in his position at #1. John McCain has passed up Rudy Giuliani due to the huge fall Rudy has experienced the last few weeks. Tancredo has also been removed per his self-removal from the race. Perhaps the most interesting change is Ron Paul's passing of Fred Thompson. Thompson's numbers haven't risen in months and Ron Paul continues his upward movement. Not to mention his single-day $6 million fundraising blitz this past week that set the all-time fundraising record for a single-day for a primary candidate, surpassing the mark previously made by John Kerry. Numbers in parentheses are the candidates' previous rankings.

1) Mike Huckabee (1)
2) Mitt Romney (2)
3) John McCain (4)
4) Rudy Giuliani (3)
5) Ron Paul (6)
6) Fred Thompson (5)
7) Duncan Hunter (7)
8) Alan Keyes (9)

Tancredo Ending Bid

2007-12-20T14:51:00.000-06:00

Tom Tancredo ended his Presidential bid today and, according to MSNBC, has endorsed Mitt Romney.

Fluidity to an Extreme

2007-12-20T14:30:00.000-06:00

By far the most appropriate one-word description of the GOP primary race is "fluid." During the Winter 2006 and Spring 2007, it seemed like Rudy Giuliani would run away with the nomination. Over Summer 2007, Romney seemed to have the primary in the bad with huge leads in almost every single early state. Fall 2007 saw the emergence of Huckabee as both the early-state and national front-runner. The story for Winter 2007? At this point, it would appear that John McCain has the greatest chance of becoming the flavor of the season. With a batch of polls released today, McCain's odds seem to be on the up-and-up.

Here are today's polls. Keep in mind, however, that ARG has a long-standing history of over-polling the Senator and the accuracy of these polls is certainly extremely disputable.

ARG GOP Iowa Caucus

* Mike Huckabee 28% (27%)
* John McCain 20% (9%)
* Mitt Romney 17% (28%)
* Rudy Giuliani 13% (9%)
* Fred Thompson 5% (14%)
* Ron Paul 4% (3%)
* Undecided 11% (9%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican caucus goers (526 Republicans and 74 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26-29 are in parentheses.

ARG GOP New Hampshire Primary

* John McCain 26% (11%)
* Mitt Romney 26% (36%)
* Rudy Giuliani 16% (22%)
* Mike Huckabee 11% (13%)
* Ron Paul 4% (2%)
* Fred Thompson 4% (3%)
* Undecided 10% (12%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (484 Republicans and 116 independents) was conducted December 16-19. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 26-29 are in parentheses.

Lastly, today's Rasmussen Daily National Tracking Poll is extremely intriguing. This is Giuliani's lowest posting in any national poll since national polling for the 2008 election began. John McCain has also risen from his long time at number four or five and into a second-place tie with Romney.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

* Mike Huckabee 21%
* John McCain 15%
* Mitt Romney 15%
* Rudy Giuliani 13%
* Fred Thompson 12%
* Ron Paul 6%

Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

The fact that Giuliani could go from national front-runner to scraping fourth place in a Rasmussen poll in a matter of days shows just how fluid this race is. There are only fourteen days left till the Iowa caucuses and Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Mike Huckabee all have a decent shot at winning the nomination. When this race is over, it will make one incredible book.

Rankings 2.0

2007-12-08T18:45:00.001-06:00

For the first time since beginning this blog, I feel it is necessary to update the candidate rankings. Here are the new rankings with previous rankings in parentheses:

1) Mike Huckabee (5)
2) Mitt Romney (1)
3) Rudy Giuliani (2)
4) John McCain (4)
5) Fred Thompson (3)
6) Ron Paul (6)
7) Duncan Hunter (7)
8) Tom Tancredo (8)
9) Alan Keyes (9)

The most glaring change is the upward movement of Huckabee from 5th to 1st. I cannot express the sadness this brings me. The GOP will put the final nail in their coffin if they nominate Huckabee as thousands of fiscal conservatives and social moderates will flock to other parties. How can we vote for a man who has advocated for quarantine of AIDS patients and begged for higher taxes while governor of Arkansas? Doubt the claims that Huck is a fiscal liberal? Watch this...

Well anyway, the other major movement is Fred Thompson's fall from third to fifth. Other than that, the only other movements were Romney's fall from first to second and Giuliani's slide from second to third.

Can You Say, "Death Wish"?

2007-12-05T15:53:00.000-06:00

With Huckabee's recent surge in both national and Iowa polling, one can only assume that the Republican Party has a death wish. The man whose politics could easily cause the GOP to find themselves in a long-term minority status. Here are the polls of which I speak:

Des Moines Register Iowa Caucus Poll, conducted Dec, 1st, 2007.

* Mike Huckabee 29%
* Mitt Romney 24%
* Rudy Giuliani 13%
* Fred Thompson 9%
* John McCain 7%
* Ron Paul 7%
* Tom Tancredo 6%
* Undecided 4%

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

* Mike Huckabee 20%
* Rudy Giuliani 17%
* John McCain 13%
* Mitt Romney 13%
* Fred Thompson 10%
* Ron Paul 7%

If you doubt that a Huck nomination could have such an immense negative impact on the GOP, I strongly recommend reading this, this, this, this, and this.

Also, this site is very enlightening.

Romney to Give THE Speech

2007-12-03T07:29:00.000-06:00

Mitt Romney, after weeks of stories that he would not, announced Sunday that he would in fact be giving an address on his faith. Romney, a Mormon, will likely follow the model of John F. Kennedy's speech regarding his Catholic faith. This speech has the potential to give Romney a huge boost... or have an immense negative impact if he goes too far. The speech will be given Thursday, December 6th in Bryan-College Station, Texas as the Bush Sr. Presidential Library.

Can You Say "Mittmentum"?

2007-11-14T15:48:00.000-06:00

As if yesterday's Rasmussen poll was not enough, two national polls released today showed even more promising results for Romney. The first is again from Rasmussen and the second comes from ARG.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

* Rudy Giuliani 26% (27)
* Mitt Romney 17% (16)
* John McCain 13% (13)
* Fred Thompson 12% (11)
* Mike Huckabee 11% (11)
* Ron Paul 5% (5)

Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

ARG GOP National Primary

* Rudy Giuliani 25% (24%)
* Mitt Romney 21% (15%)
* Fred Thompson 17% (16%)
* John McCain 12% (14%)
* Mike Huckabee 6% (6%)
* Ron Paul 4% (2%)
* Undecided 12% (17%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 9-12. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted in October are in parentheses.

Mitt's recent rise in national polling dispels one of his detractors' main criticism: that despite spending millions more than his opponents, he still polls in the single digits nationally. Now Romney is polling in the high teens and even into the low twenties. To those detractors, open mouth, insert foot.

Rasmussen Daily National Poll

2007-11-13T15:43:00.000-06:00

Rasmussen's daily national Republican poll was quite interesting today.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

* Rudy Giuliani 27%
* Mitt Romney 16%
* John McCain 13%
* Fred Thompson 11%
* Mike Huckabee 11%
* Ron Paul 5%

Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Several important things to note:

The rise of Romney,
The fall of Thompson,
The rise of Huckabee,
The stagnancy of McCain,
The upward inching of Paul,
The extremely slow but steady downward march of Giuliani.

Endorsement Race Heat Up

2007-11-09T20:07:00.000-06:00

The past few weeks have been busy ones in the Endorsement Race. While Mitt Romney scored the endorsement of Senator Judd Gregg from essential New Hampshire, Giuliani received the support of Senator Norm Coleman (MN) and Senator Kit Bond (MO). Other extremely notable recent endorsements includes Pat Robertson's endorsement of Giuliani and those of Romney backers Paul Weyrich and Bob Jones III. And let's not forget this very special endorsement made recently...

Perhaps the most weighty of this latest slew of endorsements, however, is one received by John McCain. This week, Senator Brownback (KS), a candidate for president until late October, announce his support for his fellow Senator. Brownback has very considerable clout among the so-cons and his endorsement will take on that of Robertson as so-cons make up their minds about whom they will support.

To see a complete list of endorsements from currently serving United States Representatives and Senators, check The Hill's list here.

Ron Paul's 4.2 Million Dollar Day

2007-11-06T07:30:00.001-06:00

Congressman Ron Paul astonished the political world yesterday as he raised $4.2 million in a single day, bringing his 4Q earnings above $7 million. Ron Paul has incredible support and cannot be underestimated. His chances of winning are much better than most give him. If Ron Paul can translate this money into votes, a top three finish in New Hampshire is easily within his reach.

Why Mike Huckabee Is More Dangerous for the GOP than Giuliani

2007-10-28T13:51:00.000-05:00

Mike Huckabee is an extremely quickly rising star in the Republican presidential race. I believe he is perhaps the most articulate, faith-based, and inspiring social conservative in the race. While I have immense respect for him, I would never in a million years consider pulling the lever for him in the primaries. I would much sooner vote for even Ron Paul.

The reasoning behind this comes from the divisive effect a Huckabee nomination would have on our party. While many conservatives have threatened defection in the event of a Giuliani nomination, a ticket with Huckabee at the top would lead to certain defeat.

Huckabee is shaping up to be what George W. Bush was supposed to be in 2000: a compassionate conservative. Huckabee is a former baptist minister with an impeccable record on social issues... and a set of economic policies to the left of Bill Richardson. He is extremely liberal on economic policies and is politically nearer Al Gore than Ronald Reagan.

His positions are a very close fit with those of the upper mid-west states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Dakotas, and to a lesser degree Colorado and Nebraska. While this group of voters is shaping up to be extremely important in 2008, Huckabee repels boatloads of voters from other groups. The pro-business, social-moderate, and libertarian wings of the party, while not centered in any geographical area as most populists are, will find a Huckabee nomination as the final nail in the coffin that Bush has been so busy nailing up the last few years.

A Huckabee nomination would also be a thorn in the GOP's side for at least the next two decades. George W. Bush, while just as great a man as anyone, has left the Republican Party in tatters and Huckabee would do naught but make the last few tears needed to completely splinter the GOP. Huckabee very closely resembles Bush in his policies and, frankly, I'm scared by that.

Bush and Huckabee are standard-bearers for the extreme so-cons that have hijacked the Republican Party in recent years. If any kind of conservatism is fading, it's the social variety. In this quickly evolving world, the ideas presented by social conservatism seem outdated. What people want now is government that focuses not on fighting proxy wars as the Baby Boomers have done incessantly, but officials that focus on solving problems. To use the terms of race42008.com poster DaveG, people want technocratic pragmatists.

Democrats have proven capable of adapting to this change in desires with politicians like Janet Napolitano, Mark Warner, Bill Richardson, Jim Webb, Bob Casey, and countless Congressmen and Women. Republicans, however, have been a little slower adapting to this radical change. With exceptions in the forms of Sarah Palin, Charlie Crist, Mark Sanford, and Richard Lugar, the GOP has continuously put forth Boomer proxy warrior after Boomer proxy warrior.

If we cannot adapt, we will fade into inconsequentiality. Huckabee and Bush have proven ignorant of this shift through the countless statements made by both men declaring GOP endorsement of such philosophy as an abandonment of principles. While perhaps it departs from their core principles, those principles are fading into the minority.

As Republicans, we must accept this change and prepare to be mediating back-seat drivers for a decade. Our other option is to listen to the ad nauseum indoctrination of Huckabee/Bush and become intoxicated upon our own ignorance. As we know, intoxicated persons' reasoning is seldom adhered to in vehicles and the same is true in politics.

Therefore, I am opposed to Mike Huckabee not on a personal level, but because I believe he will a) indefinitely divide our party, b) lose against Hillary, and c) cause the GOP to fade into inconsequentiality. Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain have proved more understanding of this necessity and would all act more upon reason as opposed to a personal philosophy unfitting of the nation it is being applied to.

Sam Brownback Drops Out

2007-10-20T11:32:00.000-05:00

The GOP field is down to nine with the dropping out of Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback. His 3Q fundraising stats were dismal and he (correctly) decided to cut his losses and focus on his career in the Senate. While Brownback is a fine man and an incredible Senator, he belongs in the Senate and not in the Oval Office.

Texas Governor Rick Perry Endorses Giuliani

2007-10-18T07:59:00.000-05:00

As most of you have probably heard by now, the governor of my fine state has endorsed Rudy Giuliani. Such an early endorsement followed up by such stringent support on the campaign trail hints at Perry wanting to be in the VEEP slot should Rudy win. The question is if Perry is really that great of a choice. He has strong ties to the current administration, something that is in no way positive in our nation's current political landscape. He does, however, provide a Giuliani ticket with a bona-fide Southern conservative, something Giuliani knows he needs.

All Quiet on the Western Front

2007-10-14T09:07:00.000-05:00

A rarity in politics, this was a very quiet week in world that is the 2008 POTUS election. Hopefully next week will be a little more lively.

Henry Kissinger Endorses McCain

2007-10-05T21:39:00.000-05:00

The long-time Republican aide endorsed John McCain today along with several other noteworthy Republicans. Kissinger is a huge get from McCain. Grats to the McCain camp on this one.

Rasmussen National Poll

2007-10-05T19:15:00.000-05:00

Here is the latest installment of Rasmussen's Daily Tracking Primary Poll...

Rasmussen Reports Daily National Republican Primary Tracking Poll

Thompson - 21%
Giuliani - 19%
Romney - 16%
McCain - 11%
Huckabee - 4%
Paul - 3%

Favorability Among Republicans:

Giuliani - 66%
Romney - 62%
Thompson - 61%
McCain - 61%

Several important things to note here. First and foremost, Giuliani is within the margin of error of Thompson and Romney is within the margin of error of Giuliani. These are huge developements, as Romney is beginning to show real strength in national polls: something he has proved incapable of doing up until this point. Also, the fall of Thompson is an important, but not unexpected, event. Another key info bit is the fact that Romney's favorability rating has surpassed that of Thompson and McCain. He has previously hovered around in the 50's and this is a huge step for him. If Mitt can use these polls to show that he can contend not only in states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, and Wyoming, but also on a national level, he could begin to see his numbers grow exponentially.

DaveG's At It Again...

2007-10-03T07:40:00.000-05:00

DaveG, over at race42008, is at it again with his latest piece on the future and what it holds for the Republicans. I STRONGLY recommend reading it. I agree with him wholehartedly on this issue. In this age in which information is spread instantly all over the world and social and political evolution come faster than ever, Republicans must adapt. We must realize that the nation's primary constituents are not the polarized, snarling, generation-civil-war-waging Baby Boomers. If Republicans can't adapt they will fade into a completely inconsequential party reliving past glories. Democrats have proved capable of this adaptation and we must either catch up or be left in the dust.

3rd Quarter Fundraising

2007-10-01T16:16:00.000-05:00

***Last Updated- 10.5.07 @ 7:00 P.M. Central***

Well, the third quarter of fundraising is over and the currently known totals are...

Republicans

Rudy Giuliani -- $12 million
Mitt Romney -- $10 million (plus $8 million, self-finance)
Thompson -- $9 million
McCain -- $5 million
Paul -- $5 million
Huckabee -- $1 million

Democrats

Clinton -- $22 million (Plus $5 million for general election)
Obama -- $19 million (Plus $1 million for general election)
Edwards -- $7 million
Richardson -- $5.2 million
Biden -- $1.9 million
Dodd -- $1.5 million

I will be updating the list as campaigns release their totals. Noteworthy is the fact that Texas Congressman Ron Paul raised $1 million in the last week: exceeding his goal of $500,000. That is a spectacular amount for a third-tier candidate like Paul, and his 3Q numbers are extremely impressive for a third-tier candidate at $5 million. Romney Kansas Senator Sam Brownback's numbers are also being eagerly awaited as his campaign is struggling to stay afloat financially after pouring almost all of their money into the Ames straw poll only to finish third. If Brownback can't produce anything decent, he may be forced to drop out despite earlier claims that he would stay in until at least the Iowa caucus. Huckabee's numbers were extremely dismal for someone who has been trying desperately to break into the top tier after a second place finish at Ames. Stay tuned...

Gingrich: Out!

2007-09-30T20:29:00.000-05:00

Most of you have probably heard by now, but in case you haven't, I'm just popping in to say that Newt Gingrich has announced he will not be running for POTUS. While I like Newt, I'm glad he's opting out: his presence isn't needed and would just muddle the process.

Old Robert Byrd...

2007-09-26T20:29:00.000-05:00

The longest-serving senator in history gives us his opinion on dog fighting:

Though he's right on this one, Robert Byrd is a very odd chap. He's simply senile.

Here are some other Robert Byrd clips. I strongly recommend watching them:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-V95eGgZbrU
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ocWuPkNLla4
http://youtube.com/watch?v=SNWbMGzT20c&mode=related&search
http://youtube.com/watch?v=0FIBJt-c2o0&mode=related&search
http://youtube.com/watch?v=RmY1g9dAfx8

The problem is that in West Virginia, Byrd can run for reelection and win until the cows come home.

With people such as Sen. Byrd and Sen. Ted Stevens being in national political spotlight so often these days, the issue of congressional term limits could become a fairly important issue in the future. In a nation handing over political domination to a younger generation extremely frustrated with the baby-boomers who have run the country for some time now, we very well may begin to see some policy in the future (likely not until 2012 or even 2016) that could essentially kick the baby-boomers out of Congress and prevent any future generation from abusing power as much as the boomers have.

We can, however, be sure that 2008 will not be that year. It is shaping up to be a race between Hillary Clinton and either Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani. Either of these races would present baby-boomers with ultimate final battle between the "Hipsters and the Prudes," as Camille Paglia's dichotomy puts it. If the political landscape in 2008 is still as it was in 2006, the Hipsters might just win this final showdown...

Mitt Romney nabs Kay Granger Endorsement

2007-09-25T16:21:00.000-05:00

Mitt Romney's campaign announced Representative Kay Granger's (R-TX) endorsement of Mitt Romney today. Granger, the highest ranking GOP woman in the House, is the former mayor of Forth-Worth and was a huge get for the Romney campaign. Here is her website.

Rasmussen Florida Poll

2007-09-25T16:07:00.000-05:00

Here is what Rasmussen, in my opinion the most accurate polling firm when it comes to state-by-state primary polls (the only polls worth anything at this point in the race), has to say about the state of the race in Florida:

Rasmussen Florida GOP Primary Poll

Rudy Giuliani 29% (-1)
Fred Thompson 23% (+6)
John McCain 12% (+5)
Mitt Romney 11% (-4)
Mike Huckabee 3% (+1)

Rudy Giuliani's strategy is to hang on through Mitt Romney's projected wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wyoming, and possibly Michigan and Fred Thompson's projected win in South Carolina, and pull out a win in Florida, right before Super-Duper-Mega-Giga-Ultra Tuesday. His strategy is then to go into Feb 5 with the buzz and momentum from a win in Florida and then to wrap up the nomination with wins in delegate-rich states like California and New Jersey where he is currently leading. The problem with this plan is that by the time Florida comes around, people will likely be very disappointed with Giuliani's poor showing up to that point. If Thompson can pull out a win in South Carolina right before Florida, he could use that momentum to overtake Rudy in Florida, or Romney might even have such a tidal wave rolling by South Carolina that he wins there and goes on to win Florida. Whatever happens, if Rudy can't take at least one early-primary state from Romney or Thompson's columns, he will have a very tough time pulling out a victory in Florida. His best shots at doing that at this point seem to be New Hampshire or South Carolina. Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't. We'll just have to wait and see what the Hizzoner's got up his sleeves.

DaveG: Rockefeller Democrats and Truman Republicans

2007-09-24T16:23:00.000-05:00

DaveG, over at race42008.com (a GREAT site) posted this piece earlier today. I strongly recommend reading it. DaveG has posted countless amazing pieces in the past few months on the coming political shifts in our nation.

SurveyUSA New Hampshire General Election Poll

2007-09-24T16:00:00.001-05:00

Though I think general election polls are almost as useless as national polling at this stage in the election, here's this one from SureveyUSA anyway:

New Hampshire:

Clinton 47
Giuliani 47

Clinton 51
Thompson 41

Romney 45
Clinton 44

Hmmm... Interesting. Mitt Romney, the man who most people claim is the least electable of any of the major Republican candidates seems to be the only Republican beating Hillary in New Hampshire, a state John Kerry carried in 2004. I think this poll demonstrates two things: a) the people who know Mitt the best and who are paying the most attention to him, like him; b) the people who know Hillary the best and are paying the most attention to her, dislike her. Interesting...

Willard Mitt Romney: Republicans Only Hope

2007-09-23T22:56:00.000-05:00

When it comes to the current crop of Republican candidates for president, none excite me more than former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney: co-founder of Bain Capital, savior of the 2002 Winter Olympics, etc. He is truly an amazing man and in this article I will thoroughly explain why I support Mitt Romney for POTUS.

Executive Experience: No one running for POTUS on any side of the aisle comes close to having the executive experience of Mitt. As a corporate executive in the private sector, he gained the finesse needed to run any kind of organization whether it is in the business sector or governmental sector. His term as Governor of Massachusetts demonstrates his immense leadership capabilities in an executive role phenomenally. He was able to further conservative interests in a state in which Democrats control the state Senate with a 34:5 advantage and the state House with a 140:19 advantage. Taking just ten minutes to look over his record as governor will show just what an amazing job he did considering the ultra-liberal legislature he had to deal with.
Strongly Recommended Videos:
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=32992
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=32994
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=45834

Campaign Theme: One of the things I like most about Romney is his theme of “Bringing Change to Washington.” I think change really is needed in Washington and that the majority of Americans would agree with me. No Republican can win in 2008 if they are perceived as being a continuation of the current president. This is the main reason that I think Fred Thompson is the worst person Republicans could nominate: he simply cannot win. Romney on the other hand, seems to acknowledge the fact that the Republican Party has been led astray under President Bush and that is what the American people want to hear. In a Congress rocked by scandal, few self-proclaimed supporters of family values can truly put their money where their mouth is. Even among Romney’s fellow members of the Big Four (Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson) there is a total of eight wives. Romney’s had one wife, Ann, for thirty-seven years. He truly is a family values man who can bring real change to Washington.
Strongly Recommended Videos:
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=378734
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=33000
http://mitt-tv.mittromney.com/?showid=37085

Electability: Few people realize how big a threat Hillary Clinton is when it comes to the general election. Most seem to think that America simply won’t elect her: she’s too polarizing. Forget it. Hillary can win. Republicans must release the notion that the Bush states of ’04 are safe. They aren’t. 2008 is going to be an extremely tough fight, but Mitt can win. Against Hillary Clinton, Fred Thompson and John McCain will definitely lose. Rudy Giuliani could make it close, but even he would have a very tough time beating Hillary. The notion that Mitt can’t win because he’s changed his positions or flip-flopped is false. In a Hillary vs. Romney match-up, flip-flopping will be a non-issue: they’ve both done it. One of Hillary’s greatest strength is her Health Care plan. Yes, that’s right: HillaryCare 2.0 is a strength for her campaign. In this age of globalization and world-wide competition, American jobs are moving overseas. Our economy is being surpassed by those of China, Japan, and other Asian countries. Times are rough for the average American. With our current Health Care policy, many Americans are left uninsured. With Hillary’s plan, they will get relief, and that’s what matters. Will the average American educate themselves and realize that they are paying for whatever relief they may get on their medical bills through higher taxes? Nope. The thing is, Romney has a solution. Under Romney’s plan, the average American can have similar relief without paying higher taxes. In essence, it’s actual relief. Romney’s strength on this issue eliminates one of Hillary’s best strengths, and could even make the Health Care crisis a Republican advantage. As a warm, likable man, I think Mitt Romney will mesh well with the American people: he can win.

In conclusion, I think Mitt is the best man the Republican’s could possibly nominate to run against Hillary Clinton for POTUS in 2008. He is an incredible man of great integrity and is strong on so many issues. I think not only is he the best man for the job, but also the most likely to win the nomination. However, the primaries don’t start until January and even just a day is a long time in politics. Only time will tell…